Uncertain path ahead to next year’s Ontario election, experts say

With one year until Ontario heads to the polls, political observers say the uncertainty surrounding pandemic life will have a profound impact on the province’s next election.

Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives will be vying for re-election on June 2, 2022.

That prospect that has been cast into serious doubt by their handling of the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the chaotic vaccine rollout.

Ford’s approval ratings have seen a sharp drop in recent months as the province combats the third wave of the virus.

Western University political science professor Cristine de Clercy says voters’ natural inclination to re-elect a first-term government may not apply in this case because of the pandemic.

Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, says he doesn’t think the damage done to Ford’s approvals during the third wave is “baked in” yet, but he must avoid mistakes made earlier in his term if he hopes to win.

A recent Abacus Data poll found 46 per cent of respondents had a negative view of the premier, up from 37 per cent in March.