Trump plans tariffs on Mexico and Canada for Tuesday

U.S. President Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, however, his comments have been inconsistent on what exactly is going to happen or when.

Earlier this week he suggested a tariff delay until April.

“Twenty-five per cent…April 2…And for everything,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the first official cabinet meeting of his second term.

The president then clarified the date in a Truth Social post Thursday, saying in part: “The proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” the Republican president wrote.

The Canadian government says it has done everything Trump wanted to stop fentanyl crossing the border into the U.S., but Trump didn’t agree Thursday.

“As Mexico gets stronger in terms of the border, it goes up to Canada and a lot of drugs are coming through Canada and we can’t have that,” he said.

WATCH MORE: Tariffs the main topic at final Liberal leadership debate as ballot casting opens

At the moment, the U.S. will impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods except for energy at 12:01 a.m. on March 4.

A 10 per cent tariff will be imposed on energy.

On March 12, an additional 25 per cent tariff will be imposed on Canadian steel and aluminum. Stacked on the earlier tariff, that will add up to 50 per cent steel and aluminum tariffs.

Then on April 1, Trump is expecting a report on Canada-U.S. trade, with the threat of reciprocal tariffs to counter any trade or tariff issues the U.S. sees in Canada.

Trump tariff watchers are wondering if the uncertainty is all part of a Trump plan to negotiate a lower tariff next week.

“He’s a man who believes that chaos and uncertainty work to his favour, so he throws out these numbers and these dates with the expectation that leaders from the other country will negotiate with him,” said Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

WATCH MORE: Many Canadians buying more local goods ahead of incoming tariffs

“I’m expecting he will, since he talked about it so much, put tariffs of possibly 10 per cent, maybe 15 per cent on Canada and Mexico to go forward on other issues.”

Colin Mang, an assistant professor in McMaster University‘s economics department, sees a 50 per cent chance there won’t be any tariffs next week. But if there are, tariffs could mean a long and difficult recession.

“We’re probably not going to know what happens until it happens,” he said.

“If the Trump tariffs do come in and they are the 25 per cent that he’s been promising, we would see our national income in Canada decline by about three or four per cent. That would be a pretty significant decline.”

Trump is also warning that things could get even worse if Canada decides to retaliate.

“They can retaliate but it cannot be a successful retaliation,” he said.

READ MORE: Public safety minister heads to Washington to discuss efforts to fight fentanyl