Ontario unveils $16.9B deficit in fiscal review amid global economic pressures

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy says this year’s deficit is projected to be $16.9 billion, higher than his initial estimate of $13.8 billion due to economic uncertainty.

The Ontario government says the deficit is projected to be $16.9 billion in 2026–27, $12.7 billion in 2027-28 and $6.7 billion in 2028–29 before returning to balance in 2029–30. 

Bethlenfalvy has released the 2026 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario, which government officials say further their plan to protect Ontario workers, businesses and communities while building the most competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy in the G7.

To attract well-paying jobs, the government is investing to protect tariff-affected industries and boost Ontario’s competitiveness across key sectors such as advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, AI and defence. 

“Ontario continues to face significant economic uncertainty driven by U.S. tariffs on Canada, but our government has a plan to protect workers, businesses and communities while building a stronger economy for the future,” said Bethlenfalvy. 

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“Through responsible fiscal stewardship we are fortifying key provincial industries as we attract the jobs of the future, protecting key public services and ensuring our province remains competitive in an increasingly uncertain global economy.”

Despite these challenges, the government says Ontario’s fiscal plan maintains the flexibility to respond to changing conditions, while continuing to invest in the priorities that matter most to families and communities and projecting a path to a balanced budget in 2029-30.

The government says it will continue to fortify Ontario’s industrial base and attract jobs and investment through the new $8.7 billion Canada-Ontario action plan to strengthen the province’s steel, automotive and critical minerals sectors. 

Ontario says it is investing in critical infrastructure through the $210 billion capital plan and maintaining the flexibility needed to respond to evolving economic challenges. 

The government says its fiscal plan maintains a sustainable path forward while supporting the long-term growth and competitiveness of Ontario’s economy.

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