Key ridings to watch across the Golden Horseshoe on election day

On the morning after election night, Ontario will awake to its presumptive 44th parliament — and while the polls predict various results from riding to riding, there are some that are expected to come down to the wire.

Here are several key ridings to watch across the Golden Horseshoe on Ontario election day.

Hamilton Centre

The results of Thursday’s vote will serve as a litmus test for voter loyalty — will Hamilton Centre stand by the party that has long held the riding, or the candidate it cast out?

The riding has historically been a stronghold for Ontario’s New Democratic Party until recently when Member of Parliament (MPP) Sarah Jama was ejected by party leader Marit Stiles over comments she made on the Israel-Hamas war.

As a result, Jama has been representing the riding as an independent since May of 2024.

In January, she submitted a vetting package to the party in an attempt to seek re-nomination from the Ontario NDP for this year’s election. Despite support from Hamilton Centre Member of Parliament Matthew Green, the party rejected her bid and instead put forward Robin Lennox as their nominee, a local physician and health-care advocate.

WATCH MORE: Here are the candidates running for MPP in Hamilton Centre

The other three candidates from Ontario’s major parties include Sarah Bokhari for the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party of Ontario, Eileen Walker for the Liberal Party, and Lucia Iannantuono for the Green Party.

Polls Project: Likely NDP

Haldimand-Norfolk

Haldimand-Norfolk marks the only other riding in the Golden Horseshoe region with an incumbent independent candidate.

The riding was historically a PC stronghold up until 2022, when MPP Bobbi Ann Brady upset the race as an independent — taking 35 per cent of the vote, and marking the first-ever win for an independent candidate in Ontario who did not have a past win with another political party.

She had previously worked for her predecessor, PC MPP Toby Barrett, and tried to run for the party with his endorsement in 2022. However, the Tories instead appointed Ken Hewitt as the new candidate without consultation, something Barrett vocally criticized the party for doing.

Brady’s performance marked the first time the riding had flipped since 1995, but as election day draws nearer, so does the gap between Brady and her main opponent: Amy Martin.

Martin, nominated on behalf of the PC party, has been the current mayor of Norfolk County since 2022. The two recently made headlines this month after a scheduled, all-candidates debate ended before it even began.

On Feb. 12, all six candidates in the riding were invited to turn out to the Caledonia Lions Community Centre for a night of public discourse — but when Martin arrived and learned that no one but her and her main opponent had shown up, she too pulled the plug.

In a statement online, Martin said she was “ready to debate” and defended her last-minute decision to abandon the event. “I agreed to an all-candidates debate, however, when I arrived I learned that no other candidates from any other party were there. The organizers knew this, and they failed to tell us,” she added.

The other three candidates from Ontario’s major parties are Vandan Patel for the Liberals, Erica Englert for the NDP and Anna Massinen for the Green Party.

Polls Project: Toss up PCPO/IND

Hamilton Mountain

The Hamilton Mountain riding is another swing riding to keep an eye on. The NDP has maintained a comfortable stronghold over it since 2011 with MPP Monique Taylor at the helm, but last September, the provincial party’s critic for children and social services announced her plans to switch gears and make a bid for the ridings federal seat.

In 2022, Taylor beat out the Tories with 44 per cent of the vote, to their 30 — but whether or not NDP nominee Kojo Damptey can hold on in similar fashion remains to be seen.

Current polling has the New Democrats slightly ahead of PC candidate Monica Ciriello, with Liberal candidate Dawn Danko ranking third.

Joshua Czerniga is running on behalf of the Green Party.

Polls Project: Leaning NDP

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

The Hamilton East-Stoney Creek riding suddenly, and unexpectedly flipped in 2022, after long-time NDP MPP Paul Miller was kicked out of caucus over allegations he was a part of an Islamophobic Facebook group. Miller had previously won the 2018 election with a dominant 51 per cent of the vote.

Following his removal, he ran again that same year as an independent — and lost to Neil Lumsden, with a meager six per cent of the vote. Lumsden, a retired football player, was formerly a member of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and at the time of parliaments dissolution, served as Premier Doug Ford’s Minister of Sport.

The polls show a healthy lead for the PC party that has left Liberal candidate Heino Doessing and NDP candidate Zaigham Butt fighting for the spotlight. The two got into a heated exchange during the Cable 14 debate, which Lumsden avoided altogether, by not attending.

Pascale Marchand is running on behalf of the Green Party.

Polls Project: Likely PCPO

Milton

Since it was first created in 2015, the electoral district of Milton has voted blue. With over 137,000 residents, the region has been and continues to be, one of the fastest growing communities in the Golden Horseshoe. Its incumbent, PC MPP Zee Hamid won his seat in the 2024 by-election with 47 per cent of the vote — nearly 10 per cent higher than the Liberal candidate at the time.

Looking to overturn the decade-long dynasty of Conservative rulership this year is Liberal candidate Kristina Tesser Derksen. Derksen is a well-known face in the community and has previously served two terms as a town councillor for Milton.

A hot-button issue for the region are several proposed quarry projects in the region. Activist groups, with support from the Mayor of Milton, Burlington and Caledon, have called out the Ford government and Hamid for not squashing the projects. When asked about the Campbellville quarry project, Hamid said he was waiting for the Environmental Assessment to conclude before he could make a decision.

With less than a day until they close, pollsters have her pegged just several points behind Hamid, setting the stage for yet another close race.

The other two candidates from Ontario’s major parties include Katherine-Anne Cirlincione for the Liberal Party and Susan Doyle for the Green Party.

Polls Project: Leaning PCPO

Niagara Centre

NDP MPP Jeff Burch has represented the Niagara Centre riding since 2018. The region itself has been an NDP stronghold since 1975, through several different iterations of names with similar boundaries, but that could all change come Thursday night.

PC Candidate Bill Steele, the current mayor of Port Colborne has a strong projected lead, which may be in part due to two recent investments made in his city.

In May, Asahi Kasei announced it would invest $1.56 billion into the city by building an EV separator plant — a first of its kind for the country, and a major investment for the city of 20,000.

Come November, another large investment for Port Colborne was announced, in the form of a cool $33 million to build a 8-million-litre biofuel terminal. The spur of economic growth has landed Steele with a party acclamation for Niagara Centre.

Should he win, it will mark the first time a PC has represented the region since 1974.

As for Burch, his focus on this campaign has been on improving healthcare and stopping Niagara Health from closing the Port Colborne hospital and re-directing residents to the soon-to-be-completed South Niagara hospital — something Steele has suggested could be remedied by leasing part of the hospital out to the city, where doctors would go on to run it as an urgent care clinic.

The other two candidates from Ontario’s major parties include Damien O’Brien who is running for the Liberal party and Natashia Bergen, who is running for the Green party.