FAO warns thousands of Ontario health care jobs, beds could be lost without spending boost

A recent report suggests Ontario won’t be able to meet its health care needs if the province doesn’t dramatically increase its health care spending.

The province’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) released the report in October, which also warns over 7,000 nursing jobs — among other positions — could disappear in the coming years.

“We’re in a spot right now where there’s really nothing but tough decisions that are going to need to be made,” said Melissa Prokopy, the Ontario Hospital Association’s vice-president of policy and advocacy.

The report says thousands of provincially-funded nursing positions and personal support worker roles, as well as hospital and long-term care beds, could be lost by the end of 2028.

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The report examines the 2025 Ontario budget, which projects health care spending will grow at an annual rate of 0.7 per cent.

However, it’s a significant reduction when compared to the last three years, which saw average annual growth of 6.6 per cent.

For context, the FAO estimates health care spending needs to be closer to 4 per cent per year to maintain the current level of services that are needed.

The report says this means that the province will need to implement health sector efficiencies — meaning trying to provide the same level of services with fewer resources — and/or commit additional funding to the health sector to maintain 2024-25 service levels.

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“We’re working hard every day to try and balance growing care needs with the realities of balancing a budget and have done a really good job — the best in Canada in terms of finding efficiencies — but we know finding efficiencies will only go so far,” Prokopy said.

Ontario had roughly 35,000 provincially-funded hospital beds between 2024-25, which is 220 beds per 100,000 Ontarians.

By 2027-28, that number shrinks as the population grows with 203 beds per capita.

The number of long-term care beds can’t keep up either — in part due to the projected growth rate in Ontarians aged 75 and over.

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For nursing, figures show there were over 150,000 positions funded by the province in 2024-25.

Come 2027-28, that figure is down to an estimated 143,000, a loss of over 7,000 positions.

Personal support workers face a similar loss, with an estimated 1,700 jobs disappearing, according to the FAO.

“There’s no doubt that Ontario hospitals are under financial pressure and the ministry has acknowledged that,” said Michael Heenan, president of St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton.

“There is a process that all Ontario hospitals are undergoing at this time called the hospital stabilization framework. We’re a part of that. We’re making the case and we’re explaining our efficiencies and we still expect a gap at the end of the year. But I have full faith that the ministry won’t walk away from St. Joe’s or Ontario’s hospitals because it’s a process and it’s an ongoing part of the budget.”

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