Health officials say COVID-19 outbreak has likely peaked in Ontario

Ontario health officials say the community spread of COVID-19 has likely peaked in the province.

During a news conference on Monday, Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health, Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, and Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health, disclosed the latest modelling data.

Health officials say the data shows that the enhanced public health measures, including staying home and physically distancing from each other, are working to contain the spread of the virus and flatten the curve.

The first modelling was released on Apr. 3 and projected a peak in May but officials say restrictions put in place pushed the peak to earlier this month.

“The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus. That’s due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practising physical distancing, and to the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers,” said Premier Doug Ford in a news release. “But COVID-19 continues to be a clear and present danger, especially to our seniors and most vulnerable citizens. That is why we must continue to follow the advice of our Chief Medical Officer of Health and stay the course in order to keep people safe and healthy.”

The modelling data shows there are two types of outbreaks happening – community spread and long-term care spread.

Outbreaks in long-term care and congregate settings continue to be a major concern in the province.

Ontario says it will be “urgently” implementing the COVID-19 Action Plan for Protecting Long-Term Care Homes that was announced last week.

The plan includes enhancing testing for symptomatic residents and staff and those who have been in contact with persons confirmed to have COVID-19; expanding screening to include more asymptomatic contacts of confirmed cases; and leveraging surveillance tools to enable care providers to move proactively against the disease; managing outbreaks and spread of the disease: supporting long-term care homes with public health and infection control expertise to contain and prevent outbreaks; providing additional training and support for current staff working in outbreak conditions; redeploying staff from hospitals and home and community care to support the long-term care home workforce and respond to outbreaks, alongside intensive on-going recruitment initiatives; issuing an emergency order directing long-term care employers to ensure their employees, including registered nurses, registered practical nurses, personal support workers, kitchen and cleaning staff only work in one long-term care home; and enhanced guidance on personal protective equipment requiring staff to always wear appropriate protection, supporting by priority distribution to homes.

The data also predicts there will be fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 cases during the pandemic, much less than the previous forecast of 80,000.

Health officials say more needs to be done to continue to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve.

They say the public should continue to stay home and maintain physical distancing.

Ontario reported 606 new cases of COVID-19 Monday, including 31 new deaths.

It brings the provincial total number of cases to 11,184, with 584 deaths and 5,515 resolved cases.

Below is a slideshow of the modelling data and potential scenarios presented by Ontario health officials during Monday’s news conference.