Local manufacturers could see job losses as officials predict ‘modest recession’ due to tariffs

Businesses across Ontario are being warned to buckle up as Ontario officials predict Donald Trumps tariffs could lead to a possible recession.

The prediction comes from the Ontario government agency that watches the economy, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO).

It confirms that Trump’s tariffs could push Ontario into job losses, economic decline and a possible recession, and they’re not the only ones who think that.

CHCH News spoke with Ron Foxcroft, the president and CEO of Fluke Transportation – a Hamilton-based trucking and manufacturing business that sells in the US and other countries.

“If you want to get an expert opinion on the economy, talk to a trucker first,” said Foxcroft. “Because we live it, we see the economy going up, we see first the economy going down.”

The head of Fluke Transportation is also the founder of Fox 40 International Inc., who said they’re already seeing the downtown in the Donald Trump economy.

“It’s more than tariffs, it’s the economic revolution,” said Foxcroft. “It’s the uncertainty, it’s the economic instability.”

He also agrees that tariffs will mean job losses.

“It’s going to affect employment and that’s a very serious thing,” said Foxcroft.

At Queen’s Park, the provincial government’s FAO released a report on the impact of tariffs.

“If U.S. tariffs remain in place, the FAO estimates that Ontario’s real GDP growth would slow to 0.6 per cent in 2025,” said Jeffrey Novak, a financial accountability officer. “[That’s] less than half the growth expected in the absence of tariffs.”

The office predicts Ontario’s Gross Domestic Product economic growth dropping to 0.6 per cent this year, because of tariffs, would create what they call a “modest recession.”

Next year the GDP would be down 1.2 per cent, down from an expected 1.9 per cent.

Ontario would have 119,200 fewer jobs than expected, and about half in manufacturing.

The worst job losses would include Brantford, Guelph, Hamilton and St. Catharines-Niagara.

On top of that, inflation would increase with tariffs pushing up Ontario’s Consumer Price Index by 0.2 per cent.

Premier Doug Ford is hoping to work things out with Donald Trump.

“We have a newly elected government federally – I’m sure the prime minister will be going down there to talk to President Trump,” said Ford. “The only thing that we will accept is zero tariffs, it’s as simple as that.”

The NDP accused Ford of ignoring the crisis.

“I was concerned by what I thought was [the] government’s rather dismissive comments about the FAO report today,” said Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles. “I think they’re not taking it as seriously as they could.”

Meanwhile, the trucker view is that Canada’s governments need to get together to negotiate their way out of this crisis with the U.S.

“The election is over, and the parties need to unite for the good of the country,” said Foxcroft.

The FAO says its predictions depend on how things develop concerning the U.S. tariffs, and in fact that “modest recession” could turn into a deeper recession, and the job losses could get even worse.

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