Forecast shows Canadian families may see spike in grocery bill next year

A new report forecasts Canadian families could be spending more on food in the coming year.

The latest food price report released Thursday shows grocery prices are expected to rise by about four to six per cent next year.

Details show that a family of four could spend nearly $1,000 more on groceries compared to the year before.

The report by Agri-Food Analytics Lab says food prices are 27 per cent higher than they were five years ago.

Sadaf Mollaei, a researcher at the Agri-Food Institute, said “even with those small numbers — four to six per cent — it can still have a devastating impact on consumers. Usually when there are limitations on income or budget, the food budget is the first to go.”

Lead author Sylvain Charlebois says the report points to food affordability being a major pressure point next year.

There are a number of different factors that are contributing to this spike on store shelves.

Much of this is due to climate change and trade disruptions putting pressure on suppliers.

Meat prices are going to see the biggest spike at checkout compared to bakery items, dairy and eggs, seafood and fruit — though there are anticipated changes there.

Meat, namely beef and chicken, is one of the main drivers in food inflation, up 7.2 per cent this year, and projected to rise another five to seven per cent next year.

The report says another household staple is to blame: coffee.

According to Statistics Canada, the price of a standard bag of roasted or ground coffee is up almost $4 in as many years.

In October 2021, StatsCan reported a price of $5.21, with steady increases year-over-year, before the price jumped in October of this year to $9.16.

“It relates to the disruption in the supply chain and the disruption with trade and tariffs,” said Mollaei.

In addition to tariffs leading to supply chain issues, the Agri-Food Lab says climate change also impacts imports like coffee, tea, fruits and vegetables.

This comes at a time when food bank use is at an all time high and people are left to make difficult choices over different necessities.

The report says food banks have seen more than 8.7 million visits in Ontario.

One in four visitors were employed, but still did not earn enough to make ends meet.

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