The Finance Department says Ottawa will run a deficit of at least $18.4 billion next year. This is nearly five times the projection of $3.9 million from just three months ago and once the Liberal government’s election promises are factored in the shortfall could well exceed $20 billion.

The government is also predicting a $15.5 billion deficit in 2017-2018 which is more than six times last falls estimate of $2.4 billion.

Not included in the estimates released Monday are the billions of dollars in Liberal spending commitments, such as infrastructure investments, that are expected in the upcoming federal budget.

These calculations are based on an average projected oil price of $40 for 2016, which is down from $54 from the governments fall update. The overall projected grown is down from 2 percent in the fall to 1.4 percent.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau announces March 22nd as the date he’ll present the Trudeau government’s first budget.