How to read the polls

(Update)

Anyone following the campaign closely knows there will be a lot of poll numbers released between now and election day. Analysts will carefully pour over the data — and see if they can pick up on any trends or momentum. But as an ordinary voter, what should you make of these polls? We went to the experts and got what you might call a very brief user’s guide to election polls.

With the politicians out stumping for votes, some people are already following the results closely.

“What is it — 38% for Conservatives, 33 for Wynne. I think she’ll overtake him.”

And following the polls, even if they are a little skeptical.

“No, you have to take it with a grain of salt.”

But McMaster communications professor Alex Sevigny says the polls put life into politics: “It’s part of the fun of an election campaign for the public to look at different polls, to compare different polls, and to see how the story is being told by those different polls. It’s a part of democracy — it’s a part of being an educated voter, and it really makes the story lines and issue come to life for Ontarians for voters.”

Sevigny is sticking up for the polling companies. He says they try hard to be accurate. Their reputation and credibilty depends on it. And that effects the place where they really makes money which is in market research. Sevigny acknowledges that it’s hard for the public to know what to think when one poll says one thing and another says something else. His advice — this where voters have to do some work. If you’re going to pay attention to the polls, go online and do some research: “It’s actually really hard for the pubic to do research and make a decision about whether a poll is accurate or valid. So really you have to go to peer review. So what is a peer review if you’re an informal observer, citizen watching the news or reading the newspaper? One way to do that — and it’s not a completely accurate way — is to go on to Twitter or social media and see what the experts are saying. See what pollsters are saying about this particular poll.”

We’ve all heard about the spectacular misses for the polling industry recently. Last year in B.C. and recently in Alberta, the polls got it completely wrong. In those cases, Sevigny says there were wild swings as voters changed their minds at the very last minute and the pollsters couldn’t keep up. Part of that excitement of an election.